Will the 2026 Gold Surge Fund Nigeria’s Growth—or Its Insurgency?

Abstract

The 2026 surge in global gold prices presents both an opportunity and a threat for Nigeria. While it could drive economic growth, much of the country’s gold is currently fueling insurgency and criminal networks due to weak state control.

This publication argues that Nigeria’s mineral wealth is increasingly fueling instability rather than development, particularly in key mining regions such as Zamfara, Niger, and Osun States. It emphasizes the urgent need for a strategic shift from reliance on military responses to a more effective economic approach, one that prioritizes state control of the gold value chain.