DIVERSIFICATION AND NON-OIL EXPORT OPPORTUNITIES FOR NIGERIA STATES POST-COVID19

Abstract

Economic diversification is no longer an ideal aspirational state for the Nigeria economy, but rather an imperative for sustainable economic growth. The recent COVID-19 pandemic led global oil shock, which in itself comes in a long history of oil price shocks, has brought into sharp relief the precariousness of Nigeria’s over dependence on crude oil for its export market. With over 89 million people (45% of the population) living below the poverty line, coupled with the economic vulnerabilities of the oil-dependent state further exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic, it is of particular importance that the government, as well as the private sector participants builds its short and medium-term strategy around the development of viable non-oil products in Nigeria in a bid to diversify the country’s export market. Previous attempts at export diversification and in building diversified streams of foreign income, while yielding incremental gains have not produced the level of productivity and growth required to sustain the Nigerian state. To drive export diversification, the transition from mono to diversified export market would have to be informed by concerted efforts in identifying and catalyzing the key value drivers of the economy with the potential to propel market actors (both public and private) to pivot away from oil and into non-oil sectors. One of such concerted effort, is the Zero-Oil Initiative of the NEPC – which aims to deliver an export diversification pathway through trade by prioritizing viable non-oil products with the ability to deliver transformative impacts on the economy. However, despite the adoption of the Zero-oil Initiative in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) 2017-2020 of the Federal Government, the performance of non-oil sector remains limited, and does not reflect the significant investment committed to the diversification agenda.