WEST AFRICA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2020

Abstract

Prior to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, West Africa region was poised to expand by 4.0 percent in 2020. The magnitude of socioeconomic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on countries in West Africa may not be known with certainty as the situation remains fluid. However, early assessment suggests that the prospect for initial growth projection is now evidently remote. Thus, under a conservative baseline scenario, the economy is now projected to contract by -2.0 percent in 2020, 6 percentage points below the projected growth rate prior to the pandemic. Real output could fall by as much as -4.3 percent in a worst-case scenario with prolonged duration and depth of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic until the end of 2020. Growth in the region will be affected through a combination of channels, including decline in commodity prices, low financial flows, reduced tourism earnings and heightened volatility in financial markets. Deceleration in output growth will be reflected in negative growth in per capita income of 4.3 percent with the attendant social ramifications.